Eleven States Where Seniors Outnumber Children

The Finding

Older adults now outnumber children in 11 U.S. states, up from just three in 2020, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage 2024 Population Estimates. The data, released June 26, 2025, document a steady demographic shift as the population ages and the number of children declines.

The original three states where residents 65 and older outnumbered those under 18 were Maine, Vermont, and Florida. By 2024, they were joined by Delaware, Hawaii, Montana, New Hampshire, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and West Virginia, bringing the total to 11.

The Numbers Behind the Shift

The Census Bureau reported that the U.S. population age 65 and older rose 3.1 percent to 61.2 million between 2023 and 2024, while the population under 18 fell 0.2 percent to 73.1 million. Children still outnumber older adults nationally, but the gap is narrowing.

The longer trend is sharper. The share of the population age 65 and older climbed from 12.4 percent in 2004 to 18.0 percent in 2024, while the share of children fell from 25.0 percent to 21.5 percent. From 2020 to 2024, the older population grew 13.0 percent, far outpacing the 1.4 percent growth among working-age adults.

The shift is visible at the local level too. The Census Bureau found that the number of metro areas with more older adults than children rose from 58 to 112 between 2020 and 2024, nearly 30 percent of the nation’s 387 metro areas. Three large metros, Cleveland, Providence, and Hartford, crossed that threshold for the first time.

What Is Driving It

Two forces are pushing the numbers, demographers told reporters. People are living longer, extending the years spent in the 65-and-older group, while birth rates have declined, shrinking the under-18 population. The Census Bureau attributed much of the change to baby boomers aging into retirement.

Lauren Bowers, chief of the Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Branch, said in a statement that children still outnumber older adults nationally but that the gap is closing as boomers age. She noted that the number of states and counties where older adults outnumber children is rising, especially in sparsely populated areas.

Economists quoted by Newsweek pointed to migration as another factor. Younger people have moved toward areas with strong job markets, leaving some states with older populations. A lack of in-migration of younger residents, who tend to have higher birth rates, compounds the effect in states such as West Virginia.

Why It Matters

The shift carries practical consequences. The Census Bureau reported that the national median age reached a record 39.1 in 2024, and the changing balance between older and younger residents affects everything from school enrollment to the workforce that supports public services.

The pattern is most pronounced in less-populated areas. The Census Bureau noted that most of the counties where older adults now outnumber children have small populations and sit outside metro and micro areas, suggesting the shift is reshaping rural America first even as it spreads to larger metros.

Analysts noted that states financing services by taxing workers could face budget pressure as the ratio of workers to retirees falls. A smaller share of younger residents can also make caregiving support harder to find, a concern for aging populations in the affected states.

Where the Data Stands

The Vintage 2024 estimates document a clear trajectory: 11 states with more older adults than children, a record national median age, and nearly half of U.S. counties now in the same category. The Census Bureau described this as the final release in the Vintage 2024 series.

The estimates capture a snapshot of a long-running trend rather than a sudden change. As the bureau noted, children still outnumber older adults across the country as a whole, but the direction of the data is steady, and the list of states where that balance has flipped continues to grow.

References: Older Adults Outnumber Children - U.S. Census Bureau