The AFC East Just Flipped - the Preseason Projections Have the Patriots Up and the Dolphins Near the No. 1 Pick

The Division That Turned Over in One Offseason

For most of the last decade the AFC East ran through Buffalo, and Miami owned the title of the division’s most entertaining offense. Heading into 2026, the preseason projections keep half of that intact and blow up the rest. The forecasts making the rounds before Preseason Week 1 still put the Bills on top, but they lift the Patriots into second and drop the Dolphins all the way to the floor of the league.

That last part is the shock people are reacting to. A Miami team built around speed and scheme a year ago is now being projected to compete for the No. 1 overall pick, and the reasons trace back to who left and who arrived across the division.

1. Buffalo Bills, Projected 12-5

The Bills are still the pick to win it, according to the projections, and the moves around them are read as a team protecting a good thing rather than rebuilding it. Joe Brady was promoted from offensive coordinator to head coach, which keeps the offense intact, and the front office spent on defense, adding edge rusher Bradley Chubb and defensive back C.J. Gardner-Johnson.

That is the profile of a contender shoring up its one soft spot. It is why the forecasts keep Buffalo at the top with little argument.

2. New England Patriots, Projected 10-7

The Patriots are the reason people are talking about this division at all. Drake Maye pushed into a close MVP race in his second season, and New England spent the offseason getting him a real No. 1 receiver, trading for A.J. Brown and signing Romeo Doubs.

A young quarterback on the rise paired with a genuine wideout room is exactly the setup that turns a competitive team into a playoff one, and it is why the projections have New England climbing into second. The forecasts assume Maye takes another step; if he does, second place may be the floor.

3. New York Jets, Projected 5-12

The Jets are the division’s holding pattern. Geno Smith is back for a second stint under center, but the roster’s results have trended in the wrong direction for three years, and the schedule does not help, drawing the NFC North and the AFC West.

That is the kind of slate that can drag a better-than-its-record team down to a five-win line anyway. The gap between how good the Jets actually are and where the projections land them is the thing to watch.

4. Miami Dolphins, Projected 2-15

The fall is the story everyone is reacting to. Mike McDaniel is gone, first-year head coach Jeff Hafley inherits a rebuild with an inexperienced secondary and no proven go-to receiver, and the speed-and-scheme identity that made Miami fun left with the old staff.

A two-win projection for a team that was recently a contender is the boldest call in the division, and it is the one most likely to be either exactly right or badly wrong.

What the Forecasters Are Hedging On

Every preseason order rests on a few specific bets: that Maye keeps climbing, that Buffalo’s new defenders deliver, and that Miami does not gel faster than expected. Any one of those breaking the other way reshuffles the middle, which is the honest limit of an August projection.

It is also the reason to hold onto it. We will come back to this division in November and see how the preseason calls actually held up - which is the fun of writing them down now.

References: Predicting Every NFL Division’s Standings for the 2026 Season (Bleacher Report) | 2026 NFL Roster Rankings and Starting Lineup Projections (ESPN)