Back-to-School Spending Is on Track to Set a Record $43.3 Billion This Year

What Families Are About to Pay

For households with children heading back to class, this year’s supply run is shaping up to be the most expensive on record. The National Retail Federation projects K-12 back-to-school spending will reach $43.3 billion in 2026, a record high.

That total translates to an average of about $863.86 per family, according to the NRF. For parents filling carts with notebooks, backpacks, and clothes, the season arrives with a bigger price tag than any before it.

A New Record, and How It Compares

The 2026 projection tops the prior figures by a clear margin. K-12 spending was $39.4 billion in 2025, and the previous survey record was $41.5 billion in 2023. This year’s $43.3 billion moves past both.

The college side is climbing as well. The NRF projects back-to-school spending for college students and their families at $103.5 billion in 2026, the first time that figure has crossed $100 billion in the survey. Together, the two categories point to households setting aside more than in any prior year the NRF has measured.

Why the Bill Is Rising

Part of the increase reflects what families expect to encounter at the register. According to the survey, 64 percent of shoppers expect to see higher prices this year, a factor shaping how much they budget and how carefully they shop.

NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews pointed to the pressure directly. “Affordability is a concern for families and a top priority for retailers as we enter the back-to-school season,” he said. That framing captures a season in which record totals sit alongside real caution about cost.

The result is a spending picture pulled in two directions at once. The totals keep climbing to fresh records, yet the survey shows families bracing for higher prices and adjusting how they shop to meet them. Both the record and the caution are part of the same season.

How Shoppers Are Adjusting

Faced with higher prices, families are leaning on familiar tactics to stretch their dollars. Among price-conscious shoppers, 46 percent said they are comparison shopping more, 41 percent are turning to discount stores, and 38 percent are looking for coupons or sales more often.

Timing is another lever. The NRF found 62 percent of consumers had started their back-to-school shopping by early July, and many used major June sales events to get ahead on school purchases. Spreading the buying out gives households more chances to catch a lower price rather than absorbing the full cost in a single trip.

Necessities First

The spending pattern points toward restraint even as totals rise. A share of shoppers said they plan to buy only essentials and replenish other items throughout the year rather than stocking up all at once.

That approach reflects the balance families are striking. The record projection shows households are still spending, but the emphasis on comparison shopping, discount stores, and essentials shows they are watching where each dollar goes. The season is expensive, and shoppers are managing it deliberately.

The per-household figures give the totals a familiar shape. The NRF puts average K-12 spending at about $863.86 per family this year, while college shoppers and their families expect to spend an average of roughly $1,437.79. The survey behind the projections drew on 7,677 consumers polled in early July, capturing plans as the season got underway.

Where Things Stand

The NRF projects record back-to-school spending of $43.3 billion for K-12 families and $103.5 billion for college in 2026, up from $39.4 billion and prior highs the year before. With 64 percent of shoppers expecting higher prices and many leaning on comparison shopping and early deals, the season sets a new record even as families hold the line on necessities. That is the most recent verified projection from the National Retail Federation.

References: Back to School Spending Record High Rising Costs Survey | Majority of Back to School Shoppers Get a Head Start on the Season